Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
