Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Staggered Vote Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is conducting a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the military regime, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly stalemate.

"There are no conditions for the exercise of the freedoms of freedom of expression, association or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been charged for disrupting or opposing the election under a recently enacted legislation which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a promotional video promoting the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, pointing out that resistance forces have issued their own threats urging people to shun the polls.

The army has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year after relentless airstrikes made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the next month in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed not secure enough. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it difficult to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as fabricated, while others are in exile.

International Condemnation

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can change their approach if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged political dialogue to come before any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the international community," a military representative told a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".